Soybeans: Recovery and Expansion in Area and Yields
Datagro Grãos has increased its projections for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest to 172.0 million tons, a 0.4% rise from its previous estimate of 171.2 million tons, and an 11% increase compared to the troubled 2023/24 cycle. The previous season was marked by widespread losses across key producing regions.
The improved outlook is driven by a 4% increase in planted area, reaching 48.0 million hectares, and a 7% gain in average yield, now at 3,585 kg/ha. Despite delayed spring-summer rains in the Central-West, sowing was completed within the normal window, and the majority of the crop benefitted from favorable weather.
However, regions such as southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Paraná, and particularly Rio Grande do Sul, continue to suffer from repeated crop failures.
Datagro forecasts a surplus of 576,000 tons for soybeans — the first in five years. Domestic crushing is estimated at 57.5 million tons (+3%), while exports are projected at 111.0 million tons, an 11% year-on-year increase. While demand remains strong, the surplus may limit sharp price increases.
Corn: High Productivity Anchors Record Winter Crop
Brazil’s 2024/25 corn harvest is now forecast at 132.7 million tons, a 0.7% rise from April’s projection and an 8.7% jump over the 122.1 million tons harvested in 2023/24.
The summer harvest is projected at 25.2 million tons, up 2% from last year, despite a 7% decrease in planted area, a response to low prices and erratic costs. Yield recovery was significant, reaching 6,608 kg/ha, up 9% from the previous cycle.
Winter corn, which represents 81% of total production, is estimated at 107.5 million tons, near the record 108.6 million tons set in 2022/23. Yield estimates were revised up from 5,914 to 5,957 kg/ha, the highest on record, while the area planted increased 4%, totaling 18.0 million hectares.
This expansion was largely motivated by price gains in late 2024. Despite improved productivity, Brazil is expected to face a corn deficit of 2.3 million tons—its fifth consecutive cereal shortfall.
