China’s Grain Yield to Rise 7.8% by 2034 Amid Tech-Fueled Agricultural Strategy
On April 20, China’s Ministry of Agriculture unveiled its Agricultural Outlook Report 2025–2034 at the China Agricultural Outlook Conference in Beijing. According to the report, grain yield per mu (≈667 sqm) is projected to grow by 7.8%, reaching 421 kg/mu (6.3 tons/ha) over the next decade, supported by policy, innovation, and sustainability initiatives.
The conference, held annually since 2014, is led by the Early Market Warning Expert Committee and hosted by the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Key Projections for 2034: Production, Area, and Self-Sufficiency
- Grain output will reach 753 million tons by 2034, up from 709 million tons in 2025.
- Corn yield is forecast to hit 490 kg/mu, and soybean yield to 185 kg/mu.
- Sown area will stabilize at 1.79 billion mu (≈119 million hectares).
- Food self-sufficiency rate to rise from current levels to 90.5%.
Cropping Trends: Soybeans Rise, Corn and Rice Contract
While wheat area remains stable, China anticipates a contraction in corn and rice acreage, offset by a continuing expansion in soybean planting. The policy focus on “grain storage in land and technology” and the 100-billion-jin capacity expansion initiative are expected to reshape future production priorities.
Domestic Resilience and International Trade Impact
China’s 2024 grain output hit 1.4 trillion jin (≈700 million tons) with per capita consumption at 500 kg/year. The outlook underlines the push to stabilize local supply, reduce dependence on imports, and strengthen global competitiveness.
Top Producers and Import/Export Outlook: China remains the world’s largest producer and consumer of rice, and a top soybean importer, with Brazil and the U.S. supplying over 80% of China’s soy imports.
China’s soybean imports in 2023 reached 97.5 million tons, while corn imports totaled around 20.6 million tons, mainly from the U.S., Ukraine, and Brazil.
This strategic report reinforces China’s ambition to lead in sustainable agriculture through targeted reforms, technological upgrades, and improved global positioning.
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