Overview: Nationwide Locust Forecast for 2025
China’s agricultural authorities forecast that locust infestations will impact approximately 24.74 million mu (1.65 million hectares) of farmland in 2025. This projection, issued by the National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center (NATESC), indicates moderate activity nationwide with concentrated surges in high-risk zones, particularly along border regions and ecologically sensitive farmlands.
Species-Specific Risk Assessments
- East Asian Migratory Locust (东亚飞蝗): Expected to occur at moderate levels across approximately 10.6 million mu, with roughly 4.45 million mu requiring active treatment. Key provinces affected include Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Tianjin, Anhui, and Shaanxi. High-density “hopper hotspots” may form in Shandong’s Juancheng County, Henan’s Changyuan, and coastal wetlands in Hebei and Tianjin.
- Tibetan Locust (西藏飞蝗): Forecast to infest 500,000 mu, especially in ecologically sensitive river valleys across Lhasa, Shigatse, and Shannan in Tibet, as well as the Ganzi and Aba prefectures in Sichuan. Treatment is projected for around 260,000 mu. High-density breeding is likely in Linzhou, Gongga, and Litang Counties.
- Asian Locust (亚洲飞蝗): Predicted to affect 140,000 mu, requiring treatment on 60,000 mu. Risk areas include Turpan and Tacheng in Xinjiang, and regions near the China-Kazakhstan border. Localized hotspots may emerge in Toksun and Baiyang Counties.
- Ground Locust (土蝗): Set to impact 13.5 million mu, especially across pastoral-farming transition zones in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang. Roughly 3.85 million mu may require treatment. High-density zones are anticipated in Tacheng, Chabuchar, and Wuquan County in Inner Mongolia.
Expanded Regional Case Studies and Crop Impact Zones
- Juancheng County (Shandong) & Changyuan (Henan): These densely cultivated zones are vital for wheat and corn production. Juancheng sits near the Yellow River and is prone to seasonal flooding, which, combined with above-average temperatures, creates ideal conditions for locust egg hatching. Changyuan, a national-level agricultural base, is especially vulnerable during the “Sanxia” crop management season, increasing the urgency for early treatment interventions.
- Tianjin & Hebei Coastal Wetlands: These areas serve as key ecological buffers and rice-growing hubs. The risk from migratory locusts in wetland habitats near Beidagang Reservoir underscores the challenge of balancing pest control with conservation mandates.
- Linzhou, Gongga, and Litang (Tibet and Sichuan): These highland zones—home to barley and traditional forage crops—are susceptible due to their proximity to rivers and meadows, which act as natural locust breeding grounds. The spread here could severely impact pastoral communities relying on animal husbandry.
- Toksun and Baiyang (Xinjiang): Situated along China’s western trade corridors, these counties are critical for cotton and melon exports. A locust outbreak here could disrupt supply chains and damage export competitiveness, especially to Central Asian markets.
- Tacheng and Chabuchar (Inner Mongolia): These are part of the China-Kazakhstan border region, where ground locusts pose transboundary threats. Agricultural exports like sunflower seeds and beans from this corridor are at risk, making this a flashpoint for bilateral pest monitoring and control.
- Wuquan County (Inner Mongolia): A key producer of potatoes and oats, this area’s position within the steppe-forest ecotone makes it especially sensitive to ground locust invasions, potentially affecting both local consumption and regional grain trade.
Climatic and Environmental Factors
Recent field surveys show overwintering egg densities and mortality rates near long-term averages. Henan’s egg density stands at 1.63 eggs/m² with a mortality rate of 6.65%. Shandong reports similarly stable conditions.
The National Climate Center anticipates temperatures 1–2°C above average in parts of Shandong, Henan, and Anhui during May—conditions favorable for locust hatching and development.
Transboundary Invasion and Regional Vulnerabilities
Authorities highlight threats from transboundary locust movements, particularly:
- Asian and Italian locusts near the China-Kazakhstan border (Tacheng, Jimunai)
- Yellow-spined bamboo locusts via the China-Laos border into Yunnan
- Desert locusts potentially crossing into Tibet’s Nyalam and Gyirong
- Oedaleus asiaticus at Inner Mongolia’s border with Mongolia
In response, China is enhancing border surveillance, international coordination, and deploying rapid-response mechanisms.
Rising Demand for Biopesticides and IPM
The 2025 locust outlook is accelerating the adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies, including a shift toward biopesticides. Currently, 20% of locust control uses eco-friendly biocontrol agents. NATESC aims to boost this to 70% by integrating Earth Observation data, climate modeling, and localized pest behavior analysis to target interventions precisely.
Conclusion
China’s 2025 locust control strategy reflects a hybrid model combining predictive science, international cooperation, and sustainable agrochemical innovation. As locust pressure intensifies across critical grain zones and borders, the shift toward biopesticides and precision monitoring will be pivotal in safeguarding food security and ecosystem health.
