China recorded a substantial surge in fertilizer exports in the first five months of 2025, with total outbound shipments reaching 12.84 million tons—a year-on-year growth of 33.1%, according to China Customs data. The export value climbed to USD 2.71 billion, marking a 13.8% increase.
Product Breakdown:
- Ammonium sulphate led the charts at 6.98 million tons, up 31.7% YoY.
- Urea exports fell sharply to 1.12 million tons, a drop of 82.9%.
- Diammonium phosphate (DAP) exports plummeted 91% to 0.0925 million tons.
- Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) shipments decreased 85.1% to 0.0916 million tons.
In May alone, China exported 3.14 million tons of fertilizers, including 1.63 million tons of ammonium sulphate, 0.24 million tons of urea, 0.0127 million tons of DAP, and 0.1059 million tons of MAP.
Nutrient Flow:
Exports from January to May accounted for 1.585 million tons of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) nutrients, underscoring China’s critical role in supplying key agricultural inputs globally.
Import Dynamics Reveal Domestic Supply Strategy
China imported a total of 1.11 million tons of fertilizers in May 2025. Imports comprised 0.97 million tons of potassium chloride (MOP) and 0.13 million tons of NPK compound fertilizers.
Cumulative Imports (Jan–May 2025):
- MOP: 5.63 million tons, up 0.6% YoY.
- NPK Compounds: 0.45 million tons, down 14% YoY.
The NPK nutrient content from these imports totaled 3.594 million tons.
Additionally, implicit fertilizer imports—converted from oil, cereal, bean, and vegetable oil imports—were estimated at 2.841 million tons of pure nutrients, marking a significant year-on-year decline of 26.9%.
India: Rising Fertilizer Demand
India’s fertilizer consumption rose markedly in April and May 2025. Sales of urea, DAP, MOP, and complex fertilizers hit 5.832 million tons, up from 5.129 million tons during the same period in 2024—a 14% increase.
Complex fertilizers, which combine nitrogen, phosphorous, potash, and sulfur, saw strong demand heading into the kharif cropping season.
Strategic Market Implications
While China scales back exports of nitrogen and phosphate-based fertilizers to prioritize domestic supply, the surge in ammonium sulphate shipments reflects a strategic repositioning in international markets. Simultaneously, India’s growing demand is likely to drive competition for available global supply, particularly in phosphate and potash segments.
Trade Summary:
- China is asserting stronger export controls over high-demand fertilizers like urea and phosphates.
- Imports of essential nutrients remain robust, with potash supply steady.
- India’s consumption growth will reshape regional demand-supply dynamics, pushing importers to diversify sources beyond China.
