China’s Agricultural Outlook for 2024/2025: Key Trends and Global Impacts

CASDE April – China’s Agricultural Outlook Committee (CAOC) kept its estimates for production across several key agricultural commodities in 2024/2025, including corn, cotton, edible vegetable oil, and sugar, though factoring in global trade policies and weather disruptions and influence by international supply and market prices.

Corn:

• Production and Consumption: China’s corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged from last month. The Northeast planting regions are preparing for the spring planting season, with stable intentions from farmers.
• Market Activity: Deep-processing enterprises are operating at full capacity, and overall market participation is high. Over 90% of the corn in major production areas has already been sold, with strong trading activity.
• Trade Impact: Following China’s tariff imposition on U.S. corn, imports from the U.S. are expected to decrease. As such, China’s corn import forecast for 2024/2025 has been revised down to 7 million tons, considering the continued low import levels this year.
• Key Considerations: The global trade policies will continue to play a significant role, particularly with the U.S., and this will require close monitoring in the coming months.

Soybeans

• Domestic Market: The domestic soybean market remains stable with local stocks gradually decreasing. Reserve auctions are continuing with high premiums, and the market is expected to see slightly stronger domestic prices, influenced by both local demand and tariff impacts on imports.
• International Outlook: South America is experiencing another record-breaking soybean harvest, contributing to an overall loose global supply. Global prices are expected to experience volatility, influenced by international trade policies, particularly between China and the U.S.
• Key Considerations: Despite record soybean output from South America, the ongoing tariff situation with the U.S. and shifting trade policies will continue to influence price movements and trade flows.

Cotton

• Production: There are no adjustments to China’s cotton production forecast for 2024/2025; the outlook remains at 6.16 million tons, a 9.7% increase from the previous year estimates.
• Export and Consumption: Due to the U.S. tariffs on Chinese textile exports, demand for Chinese textiles has slowed, causing a 20% reduction in cotton consumption. The revised forecast for cotton consumption is 7.6 million tons, with imports also cut by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons.
• Weather Conditions: Xinjiang, a key cotton-growing region, has seen higher-than-average temperatures, which are beneficial for planting.
• Key Considerations: The ongoing tariffs on Chinese exports and global weather conditions will continue to impact China’s cotton market, affecting both consumption and import needs.

Edible Vegetable Oil

• Production and Consumption: The forecast for edible vegetable oil production, consumption, and exports remains stable for 2024/2025. China’s rapeseed crops are progressing well, with most crops in the flowering to full-bloom stage.
• Weather Risks: While the weather conditions in the Yangtze River Basin are favorable, the southwest region faces potential risks from extended rainy spells, which could harm rapeseed production.
• Global Factors: The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions could also continue to impact the vegetable oil market, with shifts in international trade policies likely to cause market fluctuations.
• Key Considerations: Attention should be paid to trade policy changes and the potential weather-related risks in China’s domestic regions, which could affect both production and global prices.

Sugar

• Production: Sugar production 2024/25 continues to show strength, with 10.75 million tons produced by the end of March 2025, a 117,000-ton increase YOY.
• Sales Progress: Sugar sales are advancing at a faster pace, with 600,000 tons sold so far, up 126,000 tons from last year. The sales rate is 55.8%, ahead of the same period in 2024.
• Price Outlook: The recovery in domestic sugar production is expected to keep prices stable, bolstered by holiday consumption with the upcoming Labor Day holiday.
• Global Supply: On the international stage, Brazil‘s sugar production 2025/26 is expected to ramp up due to weather conditions, with a potential weak global sugar market in the short term.
• Key Considerations: China should closely monitor global weather impacts, particularly in Brazil, and domestic consumption trends, as these will influence sugar prices and market conditions.