Turkish Imports Soar Amid Domestic Shortfall
In Q1 2025, Turkey’s sunflower seed imports surged 4.3 times year-over-year to 396,000 tonnes, setting a new record. The primary suppliers were Romania (201,000 t) and Moldova (168,000 t), stepping in to fill a domestic supply gap. In parallel, sunflower oil imports reached 308,000 t, predominantly from Russia and Ukraine. Despite increased imports, Turkey exported 186,000 t of refined oil to North Africa, the Middle East, and the EU, maintaining tight regional balances.
Ukrainian Sowing Lags Behind Schedule
By mid-April 2025, Ukraine had only sown 1.24 million hectares of sunflower—well behind the typical pace due to persistent cold and wet weather, along with logistical disruptions. Farmers still aim to reach 5 million hectares, but delays raise significant yield risk concerns for the 2025 harvest.
Argentina’s Record Harvest Pressures Global Prices
Argentina is on track to produce a record 4.7 million tonnes of sunflower seed in 2024/25, a 22% year-over-year increase. Favorable weather and expanded planted area are key drivers. This bumper crop has already pushed FOB Up-River oil prices down to USD 1,115–1,125/t, exerting downward pressure on global sunflower oil prices.
EU and U.S. Expand Sunflower Planting
The EU projects a 2025 sunflower crop of 9.669 million tonnes, a 16.6% increase from 2024, driven by good soil moisture and area expansion, especially in Romania, Bulgaria, and France. In contrast, Hungary’s planting area fell slightly due to crop rotation constraints.
In the U.S., farmers plan to sow 1.07 million acres (433,000 ha) of sunflower in 2025, a 49% increase year-on-year. North Dakota is leading the recovery, with oil-type sowings up 62%. March 1 inventories were down 52% year-over-year, underscoring a tight supply chain.
May 2025 Market Prices (FOB or CPT)
- Ukrainian sunflower seed (49–51% oil): USD 680–740/t CPT
- EU Black Sea port (50% oil): USD 640–660/t FOB
- Argentine crude sunflower oil: USD 1,115–1,125/t FOB
- Russian crude sunflower oil: USD 1,100–1,115/t FOB
- Ukrainian crude sunflower oil (Chornomorsk): USD 1,135–1,145/t FOB
Outlook and Strategic Guidance
Prices are expected to remain stable within USD 620–700/t for Black Sea seeds until updated emergence data is available in June. Downside pressure is likely from record Argentine availability and growing palm oil stocks. However, logistics risks in Ukraine and a hot June could trigger upward volatility.
Recommendations:
- Buyers: Secure Q3 volumes of high-oleic sunflower oil while Argentine supply remains active and before summer weather risks in the EU escalate.
- Crushers/Sellers: Hedge oil-to-seed spreads; current margins (~USD 70/t in the Black Sea) could narrow with rising seed costs.
- Traders: Monitor phytosanitary protocols on Romania–Turkey flows. Any disruptions could lift demand for Bulgarian or Moldovan seed.
- Investors: Follow North Dakota planting and potential U.S. renewable diesel policy shifts that could absorb sunflower oil into biodiesel.
Conclusion
The 2025 sunflower seed market reflects a delicate balance between expanding acreage and historically tight inventories. With Turkey leading imports, Argentina dominating exportable surplus, and Ukraine struggling to sow on time, the supply-demand equation remains volatile. The key drivers ahead are weather in June–July and trade policies affecting Russia and Ukraine. Market participants should maintain flexible strategies to manage price risks through the upcoming harvests.
FAQ
What is the current price of sunflower seed and oil in May 2025?
Sunflower seed prices range from USD 640–700/t (FOB), while crude sunflower oil trades at USD 1,100–1,150/t, depending on origin.
Why have Turkey’s sunflower imports quadrupled in 2025?
A domestic shortfall prompted Turkey to boost seed and oil imports from Eastern Europe to sustain refinery output and meet regional demand.
Is the EU on track for a record crop?
Yes. The 2025 outlook is up 16.6% to 9.669 Mt, led by Romania, Bulgaria, and France.
How will Argentina’s bumper crop affect global prices?
With oil exports exceeding 1.15 Mt, Argentina will anchor prices through July, especially as palm and soy oil trends stay weak.
What are the risks for buyers in 2025?
Logistical issues in Ukraine, potential Russian policy shifts, and heat waves in June could sharply move prices.
